ASML Holding: ASML earnings preview — HSBC expects inline SepQ, growth outlook key

HSBC previews ASML's September-quarter results (due October 15). Analyst Adithya Metuku (Buy, TP EUR1,018) expects broadly inline SepQ numbers, with management's outlook into 2026 critical. HSBC forecasts 2026 revenue growth of ~6% y/y and highlights upside tied to OpenAI‑driven DRAM capacity news. Key metrics to watch: SepQ orders (~EUR4bn), backlog, near‑term revenue, DecQ guidance, and lithography mix (high‑NA EUV adoption). Risks: semi‑cap capacity constraints, ~10ppt EUR/USD FX headwind trimming outer-year estimates. Investors should watch guidance closely.